964
FXUS64 KMOB 250829
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT): A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE AS OF 3AM.
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
AND THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. GIVEN THIS, WILL ONLY CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
LOCATED CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST BECOMES MORE TRICKY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESSER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER SEMI-ZONAL FLOW.
THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH MLCAPES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20-40% STORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO DEVELOPS
ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING AND PROPAGATES IT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL, WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY GIVEN THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
POORER TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KT, CANNOT RULE OUT A PULSE STRONG/SEVERE
STORM THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE CHANCES LATER TONIGHT WILL HINGE UPON
HOW ORGANIZE STORMS BECOME TO OUR NORTHWEST. IF A STRONG ENOUGH
COLD POOL CAN MATERIALIZE, THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A BETTER
DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE TN VALLEY.
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL OF STORM ORGANIZATION. LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY AND ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.
34/JFB
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
ON TUESDAY UNDERGOES AN UNUSUAL TRANSFORMATION INTO AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN IS
ANTICIPATED TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW WILL
BE LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIFTS TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
MEANWHILE DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT'S NOT CLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WILL
DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY OR MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. A
VIGOROUS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED FORCING AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS WEST
OF I-65 WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT IS
NOT CLEAR AS OF YET HOW THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY FACTOR INTO
THE FORECAST, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS FEATURE COULD
LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH THEN MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOP, THEN THIS WOULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAN IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH
LIFTED OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH DRIFTS INTO THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN FINALLY BE PUSHED INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF PATTERN AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HAVE GONE WITH PREDOMINATELY LIKELY POPS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, THEN
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY. SOME FLOODING CONCERNS COULD ARISE
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
LINGERING PATCHES OF RAIN LOCATED MOSTLY EAST OF I-65 DISSIPATES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION, AND ALSO WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REDEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK, BECOMING LOCALLY
ENHANCED IN AREA BAYS/SOUNDS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE EACH
DAY. ISOLATED STORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MARINERS SHOULD BE
ADVISED THAT WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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