925
FXUS64 KMOB 260506
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN, AND WE CAN
EXPECT BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CONVECTION. NUMEROUS IMPULSES AND
PERTURBATIONS WILL PASS OVER OUR REGION IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT FLUCTUATES FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY TO AT TIMES NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW, AND WE WILL DO OUR BEST TO TIME THESE DOWN. ALL OF THIS
IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS, AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GULF.
IN ADDITION, ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES HOLD BETWEEN 1.7
TO 2.0 INCHES.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING TWO ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION, AND BOTH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES,
AND SHOULD SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FIRST
WAVE, APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SECOND WAVE, APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ANYWHERE
OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL OCCUR
NORTHWEST OF I-65 WHERE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. SPC HAS OUR INLAND AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY, AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER BOWING
SEGMENTS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 88 TO 92 DEGREES, WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) IN UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 69 TO 76
DEGREES. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. /22
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST ALL WEEK.
A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTING AT ANOTHER POTENT
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME. THE PATTERN GETS MORE COMPLEX BEYOND THURSDAY AS
NUMEROUS SUBTLE (SOME MORE POTENT) SHORTWAVES SWING AROUND THE BASE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH PWATS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 2
INCHES AT TIMES, SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE HIGH GIVEN THE PARADE
OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT. WHILE WE DON'T EXPECT A WASH OUT ON ANY GIVEN
DAY NEXT WEEK, WE DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO FOLLOW OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WOULD BE WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. AT
TIME POINT, THERE'S NOT AN OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT
ANY POINT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HOWEVER, WE CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM WATER LOADING. GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE
ACTIVE FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW, MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING MAY START
TO BECOME A CONCERN FOR LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS (AND TYPICAL
TROUBLE SPOTS) AS WE ROLL DEEPER INTO THE WEEK. ALL THAT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO THE AREA ALSO MEANS THAT IT'LL BE MUGGY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEACH FORECAST - RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO A LOW RISK LATER IN THE WEEK. OUR
RIP CURRENT MOS PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT THE RISK SHOULD REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 07/MB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE TAF
SITES BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THEN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 5-10
KNOTS DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
NO IMPACTS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 89 72 87 69 85 69 84 / 30 40 30 70 30 60 40 60
PENSACOLA 76 86 76 87 74 85 72 83 / 10 20 20 60 40 50 40 60
DESTIN 77 87 77 88 75 86 74 86 / 0 20 20 50 30 50 40 50
EVERGREEN 69 90 68 89 68 87 66 85 / 40 40 30 80 40 60 30 50
WAYNESBORO 70 90 68 86 67 85 65 83 / 50 60 40 80 30 60 30 50
CAMDEN 69 89 68 86 67 84 64 81 / 50 60 50 80 40 60 30 50
CRESTVIEW 69 91 70 90 68 88 67 86 / 20 30 20 70 30 60 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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