520
FXUS64 KMOB 261124
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
624 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS, WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST, HELPING TO FILTER IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, AS THE ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. TO START THE PERIOD, A
WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AND IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT THESE WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FURTHER TO OUR WEST, A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL INITIATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. GIVEN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE/MOISTURE, THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD, AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER AS
IT REACHES THE I-65 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
STORMS TO MATURE, AND ANY THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS ON TUESDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CREATE A RINSE AND REPEAT SCENARIO, WITH A
QLCS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR WEST AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS THIS ACTIVITY REACHES OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AND LIKE TODAY, THE TIMING OF
THIS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH, AS WE BEGIN TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THE MAIN IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND DEWPOINTS AREN'T EXPECTED TO MIX OUT, LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES NEARING 100 DEGREES
TODAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. /73
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MN/WI ON WEDNESDAY EVOLVES INTO A
LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH
THEN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY TO ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MEANDER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PATTERN AMPLIFIES. A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN
LIKELY POPS FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHER POPS NEAR THE COAST, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MAINLY NUISANCE TYPE
FLOODING CONCERNS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, AND SOME
STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER TODAY; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 73 89 71 87 69 85 69 / 30 20 40 30 70 30 60 40
PENSACOLA 88 77 87 75 87 74 85 72 / 20 10 20 20 60 40 50 40
DESTIN 88 77 87 77 88 75 86 74 / 10 10 10 20 50 30 50 40
EVERGREEN 92 69 91 69 89 68 87 66 / 50 20 50 40 80 40 60 30
WAYNESBORO 90 70 90 68 86 67 85 65 / 60 30 70 40 80 30 60 30
CAMDEN 89 69 89 68 86 67 84 64 / 60 40 70 50 80 40 60 30
CRESTVIEW 92 70 91 69 90 68 88 67 / 30 10 30 20 70 30 60 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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