958
FXUS64 KMOB 262124
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
AT LAST COUNT, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER 3 TO 4 WAVES OF STORMS TO PASS
ACROSS OUR WARNING AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE EXPECT BOTH NOCTURNAL AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION. NUMEROUS IMPULSES AND PERTURBATIONS WILL PASS
OVER OUR REGION IN A PRIMARILY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A NORTHERLY PLAINS UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ROUGHLY NEAR THE ARLATEX REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, SENDING AN
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
STALLING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
AVAILABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES HOLD BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.1
INCHES.
JUST LOOKING AT THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, OBVIOUSLY WE CAN EXPECT
THE FIRST ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES FROM
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM, AND ANOTHER WATCH FOR OUR
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.
ALTHOUGH NOT ADVERTISED BY THE NBM, WE EXPECT A WEAKER SECOND WAVE
OF ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A THIRD WAVE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FORTH WAVE OF IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A BLEED OVER FROM THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ANYWHERE OUTSIDE
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS. AS THEY SAY, TIMING IS EVERYTHING. HOPEFULLY,
WE HAVE THESE WAVES TIMED OUT AS BEST AS POSSIBLE IN THIS
CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL OCCUR ACROSS
OUR INLAND AREAS WHERE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS OUR INLAND AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY, AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER BOWING SEGMENTS MAY
HAVE GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 88 TO 92 DEGREES, WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) IN UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 68 TO 76
DEGREES. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. /22
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OPENS UP AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
LARGE UPPER TROF, WHICH SLIPS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT'S AT THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A TRAILING FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND STALLS NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL SUPPORT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES OPERATING ON SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
REMAIN THE STORY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
STORMS STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE MID TO LATE WEEK.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW AND THE REPEATED PASSAGE OF LARGER SCALE LIFT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MAINLY NUISANCE TYPE
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THE COAST OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN GRIDDED QPF, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BEGINS TO DRY
THINGS OUT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNS MONDAY. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, AND PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
84. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
/22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
NO IMPACTS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY,
BECOMING WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 89 71 87 69 85 69 83 / 20 50 30 70 40 60 50 70
PENSACOLA 77 87 75 87 74 85 72 83 / 20 40 20 60 30 60 50 70
DESTIN 78 88 77 88 76 86 74 85 / 20 30 20 50 30 50 40 70
EVERGREEN 70 92 68 88 68 87 66 83 / 40 60 40 80 40 70 50 70
WAYNESBORO 70 89 67 86 66 84 65 81 / 30 70 40 80 40 70 50 60
CAMDEN 69 89 67 86 67 84 65 80 / 70 70 50 70 40 70 50 60
CRESTVIEW 70 91 69 91 69 88 67 86 / 20 40 20 70 30 70 40 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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