726
FXUS64 KMOB 270531
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1231 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
AT LAST COUNT, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER 3 TO 4 WAVES OF STORMS TO
PASS ACROSS OUR WARNING AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE EXPECT
BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CONVECTION. NUMEROUS IMPULSES AND
PERTURBATIONS WILL PASS OVER OUR REGION IN A PRIMARILY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN A NORTHERLY
PLAINS UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
GULF. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ROUGHLY NEAR THE ARLATEX REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, SENDING AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
IN OUR AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES HOLD BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES.
JUST LOOKING AT THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, OBVIOUSLY WE CAN EXPECT
THE FIRST ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO
OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES
FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM, AND ANOTHER WATCH FOR
OUR INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES UNTIL 10
PM. ALTHOUGH NOT ADVERTISED BY THE NBM, WE EXPECT A WEAKER SECOND
WAVE OF ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A THIRD WAVE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FORTH
WAVE OF IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A BLEED
OVER FROM THE DIURNAL CONVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE ANYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS. AS THEY SAY,
TIMING IS EVERYTHING. HOPEFULLY, WE HAVE THESE WAVES TIMED OUT AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE IN THIS CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL OCCUR
ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS WHERE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS FROM
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS OUR INLAND AREAS IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY, AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 88 TO 92 DEGREES, WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) IN UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 68 TO
76 DEGREES. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. /22
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OPENS UP AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
LARGE UPPER TROF, WHICH SLIPS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT'S AT THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A TRAILING FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND STALLS NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL SUPPORT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES OPERATING ON SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
REMAIN THE STORY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
STORMS STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE MID TO LATE WEEK.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW AND THE REPEATED PASSAGE OF LARGER SCALE LIFT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MAINLY NUISANCE TYPE
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THE COAST OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN GRIDDED QPF, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BEGINS TO DRY
THINGS OUT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNS MONDAY. /10
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS. A PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
NO IMPACTS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 87 69 84 69 84 62 84 / 30 70 40 80 50 70 20 10
PENSACOLA 75 87 74 84 73 84 66 84 / 20 60 30 80 60 70 30 10
DESTIN 77 88 76 86 75 85 68 84 / 20 50 30 70 60 70 40 10
EVERGREEN 68 88 68 85 67 83 59 84 / 40 80 40 80 60 70 20 10
WAYNESBORO 67 86 66 84 67 82 59 83 / 40 80 40 80 50 60 10 10
CAMDEN 67 86 67 82 66 80 58 81 / 50 70 40 80 60 70 20 10
CRESTVIEW 69 91 69 87 68 85 60 86 / 20 70 30 80 60 80 30 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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