802
FXUS64 KMOB 270706
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
206 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WITH UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRAILS FROM ITS PARENT LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY, SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SE
TX. CLOSER TO HOME, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PW VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 2
INCHES WHICH EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, THOUGH
OUR BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME LATER TODAY.
A QLCS, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS, WILL PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY
SUGGESTS THAT THIS QLCS WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF, WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE AREA. MEANWHILE,
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING, LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNSTABLE, AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH,
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW FOR LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ALOFT,
LENDING UPWARDS OF 2000- 3000 SBCAPE. AT THE SAME TIME, A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS SET
UP AND THE TIMING, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS A BIT TRICKY;
HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z (1 PM TO 9 PM)
WHEN THE BETTER FORCING ALIGNS WITH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THUS, CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A LOW END TORNADO THREAT,
ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND POTENTIAL.
WHILE OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE SETUP HAS INCREASED, THERE ARE STILL
SOME CAVEATS TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING. WITHOUT A DEFINED
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, AND BASED ON THE CURRENT THINKING
THAT THE QLCS TO OUR WEST DISSIPATES, THE MAIN SOURCE OF SURFACE
LIFT WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. THAT SAID, THERE'S ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE AREA TODAY, WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, A TORNADO OR TWO, AND HAIL. THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
ALOFT EXISTS, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS FOR THE WHOLE AREA. ANY
LINGERING STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO EJECT AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THOUGH PINPOINTING THE TIMING OF STORMS IS
CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE SETUP, WE'LL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER QLCS DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OR GENERATE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
EITHER WAY, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW,
SO WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, SUGGESTING MORE OF
A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT ON WEDNESDAY. /73
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TAKES ON A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED SURFACE TROF
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND APPEARS TO DRIFT A BIT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS THURSDAY
MORNING LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES, AND IN THE PROCESS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY, AND WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA AND
PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE, HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE LARGE UPPER TROF PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN STATES PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. A WEAK REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND LINGERS INTO MONDAY,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS. A PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY, BECOMING WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 71 87 69 85 69 83 64 / 50 30 70 40 60 50 70 30
PENSACOLA 87 75 87 74 85 72 83 67 / 40 20 60 30 60 50 70 40
DESTIN 88 77 88 76 86 74 85 70 / 30 20 50 30 50 40 70 40
EVERGREEN 92 68 88 68 87 66 83 60 / 60 40 80 40 70 50 70 30
WAYNESBORO 89 67 86 66 84 65 81 60 / 70 40 80 40 70 50 60 20
CAMDEN 89 67 86 67 84 65 80 60 / 70 50 70 40 70 50 60 20
CRESTVIEW 91 69 91 69 88 67 86 61 / 40 20 70 30 70 40 70 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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