453
FXUS64 KMOB 271600
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE LINE OF STRONG STORMS HAS ARRIVED INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA THOUGH IT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE BEST
VERTICAL SHEAR LOCATED TO THE WEST. BEST 0-3KM CAPE OF 125-175
J/KG IS FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MS AND AL RIGHT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THIS LINE. THIS IS WHERE WE'RE STILL SEEING A FEW
STRONGER POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. THIS LINE IS LIKELY TO DECAY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS EAST
AND SLOWS THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT 1.8 TO 2") AND
AN ALREADY DESTABILIZED LOWER ATMOSPHERE, IT'S LIKELY WE SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
CATCHES BACK UP WITH THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON (12-5PM). LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM IN THE MID-LEVELS AND WEAKLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE HAIL GROWTH
OF UP TO 1 TO 2" AND STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN ORGANIZE, BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AND IT WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN A LINE IF STORMS
CAN SUFFICIENTLY CONGEAL AGAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEVERE
THREAT IS PREDOMINANTLY NORTH OF I-10 AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS LATER IF CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INCREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WITH UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRAILS FROM ITS PARENT LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY, SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SE
TX. CLOSER TO HOME, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PW VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 2
INCHES WHICH EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, THOUGH
OUR BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME LATER TODAY.
A QLCS, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS, WILL PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY
SUGGESTS THAT THIS QLCS WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF, WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE AREA. MEANWHILE,
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING, LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNSTABLE, AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH,
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW FOR LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ALOFT,
LENDING UPWARDS OF 2000- 3000 SBCAPE. AT THE SAME TIME, A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS SET
UP AND THE TIMING, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS A BIT TRICKY;
HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z (1 PM TO 9 PM)
WHEN THE BETTER FORCING ALIGNS WITH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THUS, CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A LOW END TORNADO THREAT,
ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND POTENTIAL.
WHILE OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE SETUP HAS INCREASED, THERE ARE STILL
SOME CAVEATS TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING. WITHOUT A DEFINED
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, AND BASED ON THE CURRENT THINKING
THAT THE QLCS TO OUR WEST DISSIPATES, THE MAIN SOURCE OF SURFACE
LIFT WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. THAT SAID, THERE'S ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE AREA TODAY, WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, A TORNADO OR TWO, AND HAIL. THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
ALOFT EXISTS, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS FOR THE WHOLE AREA. ANY
LINGERING STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO EJECT AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THOUGH PINPOINTING THE TIMING OF STORMS IS
CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE SETUP, WE'LL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER QLCS DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OR GENERATE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
EITHER WAY, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW,
SO WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, SUGGESTING MORE OF
A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT ON WEDNESDAY. /73
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TAKES ON A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED SURFACE TROF
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND APPEARS TO DRIFT A BIT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS THURSDAY
MORNING LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES, AND IN THE PROCESS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY, AND WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE AREA AND
PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE, HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE LARGE UPPER TROF PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN STATES PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. A WEAK REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND LINGERS INTO MONDAY,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE AREA.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KMOB BETWEEN 14-15Z AND EXIT
KPNS BY 19Z. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD TOGETHER, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP. IF THIS
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER, IT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, NO ADDITIONAL MENTION OF TSRA IS INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY, BECOMING WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 87 70 84 69 84 62 84 / 30 70 40 80 50 70 20 10
PENSACOLA 74 87 74 84 73 84 66 84 / 20 60 40 80 60 70 30 10
DESTIN 76 88 76 86 75 85 68 84 / 20 50 40 70 60 70 40 10
EVERGREEN 67 89 68 85 67 83 59 84 / 40 70 40 80 60 70 20 10
WAYNESBORO 66 86 66 84 67 82 59 83 / 50 60 50 80 50 60 10 10
CAMDEN 66 85 67 82 66 80 58 81 / 40 50 50 80 60 70 20 10
CRESTVIEW 69 90 69 87 68 85 60 86 / 20 70 30 80 60 80 30 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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