079
FXUS64 KMOB 280538
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE DECAYING MCS THAT ENTERED THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK EAST AND IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE INCREASING SHEAR FROM THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST CURRENTLY LIFTING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN. AS SUCH, NEW UPDRAFTS HAVE GRADUALLY
GROWN MORE ORGANIZED OVER PORTIONS OF CONECUH, BUTLER, COVINGTON,
AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KM AND BEST SHEAR DIVORCED FROM THE MAIN
BOUNDARY AXIS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT A TORNADO WOULD DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT FROM A SINGLE CELL STORM. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF BRIEF
SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH THIS WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE DERIVED FROM AN
ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENT FROM CONGEALING STORMS AS WE'RE CURRENTLY
SEEING NEAR CRENSHAW COUNTY.
BY AROUND 4PM WE WILL BE SAYING GOODBYE TO THIS MCS AND PIVOTING
OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEST WHERE SOME CAM GUIDANCE HAS HINTED
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS WHICH WILL LARGELY BE A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD ENTER THE AREA
AROUND 7PM THROUGH 11PM THIS EVENING. AS THIS SECONDARY LINE
PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY "LAY DOWN" MORE WEST TO EAST
AS IT GETS LEFT BEHIND ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
ALONG THE AL AND WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY IN THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN
AS THE MCS PARADE AND THE SUBSEQUENT MULTIPLE INTERPRETATIONS BY CAM
GUIDANCE IN HOW TO INITIALIZE IT AFFECTS THE LATEST FORECASTS. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE LATEST GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHT
LARGELY COASTAL, SEA-BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
YET ANOTHER MCS WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRIVEN BY A ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE WSW MID-UPPER FLOW. THIS MCS WOULD ARRIVE INTO THE AREA
IN THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THE LONGEVITY AND SEVERITY OF THIS LINE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT GENERALLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND
SPATIALLY LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THIS WAVE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... YET ANOTHER LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE WSW FLOW WILL HELP TO KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS PRIMARILY. BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE. THE BROAD CUT-OFF TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING FOR DAYS
WILL FINALLY DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DELIVERING A
WELCOMED LATE- SPRING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DELIVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT MURKY BY THIS RANGE.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KNOCK DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AROUND 09Z. AFTER 09Z, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL WANE AS
THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST, BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORTLIVED AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY BY 15Z. COASTAL TERMINALS JKA AND PNS WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THIS BOUNDARY AND THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z AND THIS
REFLECTED WITH PROB30 GROUPS. AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES FURTHER
INLAND, CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT BFM AND MOB AFTER 17Z AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNSET AROUND 01Z. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE
THREAT IS BEST REFLECTED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT THESE TERMINALS. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO
15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING WESTERLY AND
THEN NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH
THE THURSDAY, NEAR 3 FEET OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY, AND THEN RETURNING
TO 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER AT TIMES DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN AND ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 84 69 85 62 84 63 86 / 40 70 40 70 10 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 74 84 74 86 66 83 68 85 / 30 70 60 70 20 0 0 10
DESTIN 76 85 76 86 68 85 70 85 / 30 60 60 70 30 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 68 86 67 84 58 84 60 87 / 40 70 50 70 10 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 67 82 67 82 58 82 59 85 / 40 70 40 60 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN 68 82 66 80 58 81 59 84 / 40 60 50 60 10 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 70 87 69 87 60 85 60 88 / 40 60 50 80 20 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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