472
FXUS64 KMOB 280900
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. AS THESE AREAS OF
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE THROUGH, THEY WILL TAP INTO A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS AS NOTED BY
PWATS IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE AND MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG.
THE END RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
FORM OF A CLUSTER OR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS, THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SEABREEZE
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. IN FACT, TODAY WILL
START OFF AS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WITH SEABREEZE BORN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIALLY FORMING ALONG THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AND THEN PUSHING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY RISING INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THE GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVELY AIDED HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BOTH
INDICATE THE NEXT STRONGER VORTICITY MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP POP HIGHER THAN
TYPICALLY SEEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MORE
LIMITED, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE A MUCH
STRONGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT SHOULD SWEEP IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HIGHER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WINDS, POTENTIALLY TO SEVERE LIMITS, AS IT MOVES
THROUGH, MAINLY DUE TO THE DENSITY DRIVEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. GIVEN
THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THIS MCS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW, POP IS IN THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A FINAL ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ON FRIDAY IN THE
FORM OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BE TIED INTO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
PROVIDE FOR A MUCH DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND. BEFORE THOSE
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S CAN MATERIALIZE, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL, DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, WILL SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS BY HAVING POP PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AROUND 70 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO THE CONTINUED HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD AND PUSH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO LIMIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERLY FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY, BY MONDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO AN
ONSHORE DIRECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT BACK
INTO THE AREA. FORTUNATELY, THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, AND THIS WILL PUT A CAP ON MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
RIGHT ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. TO REFLECT THIS RISK, LOW END
POP OF AROUND 20 PERCENT IS IN PLACE EACH AFTERNOON AND IS LARGELY
CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEABREEZE FRONT THAT WILL
PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND. THE END RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS
FAR INLAND AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BY 15Z.
COASTAL TERMINALS JKA AND PNS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS BOUNDARY
AND THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z AND THIS REFLECTED WITH
PROB30 GROUPS. AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND, CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT BFM AND MOB AFTER 17Z AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNSET AROUND 01Z. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE THREAT
IS BEST REFLECTED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT THESE TERMINALS. AFTER 06Z,
MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PRETTY
BENIGN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ONLY TIME PERIOD WHERE WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS RISE TO AROUND 4
FEET IS AFTER A DECENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. PG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 88 70 84 69 85 62 84 64 / 70 40 90 40 70 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 87 74 84 74 85 66 83 69 / 50 30 80 60 70 30 10 10
DESTIN 88 76 85 76 85 68 85 71 / 40 30 80 60 70 30 10 10
EVERGREEN 89 68 86 67 83 59 85 60 / 60 40 90 50 70 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 86 67 82 67 81 59 82 60 / 60 50 90 40 60 10 10 0
CAMDEN 85 68 82 66 80 59 81 60 / 50 50 90 50 70 10 10 0
CRESTVIEW 90 70 87 69 85 60 86 61 / 70 30 90 50 80 20 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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