963
FXUS64 KMOB 281713
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1213 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. AS THESE AREAS OF
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE THROUGH, THEY WILL TAP INTO A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS AS NOTED BY
PWATS IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE AND MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG.
THE END RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
FORM OF A CLUSTER OR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS, THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SEABREEZE
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. IN FACT, TODAY WILL
START OFF AS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WITH SEABREEZE BORN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIALLY FORMING ALONG THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AND THEN PUSHING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS EASILY RISING INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THE GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVELY AIDED HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BOTH
INDICATE THE NEXT STRONGER VORTICITY MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP POP HIGHER THAN
TYPICALLY SEEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MORE
LIMITED, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE A MUCH
STRONGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT SHOULD SWEEP IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HIGHER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WINDS, POTENTIALLY TO SEVERE LIMITS, AS IT MOVES
THROUGH, MAINLY DUE TO THE DENSITY DRIVEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. GIVEN
THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THIS MCS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW, POP IS IN THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A FINAL ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ON FRIDAY IN THE
FORM OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BE TIED INTO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
PROVIDE FOR A MUCH DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND. BEFORE THOSE
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S CAN MATERIALIZE, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL, DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, WILL SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS BY HAVING POP PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AROUND 70 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO THE CONTINUED HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD AND PUSH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO LIMIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERLY FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY, BY MONDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO AN
ONSHORE DIRECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO ADVECT BACK
INTO THE AREA. FORTUNATELY, THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, AND THIS WILL PUT A CAP ON MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
RIGHT ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. TO REFLECT THIS RISK, LOW END
POP OF AROUND 20 PERCENT IS IN PLACE EACH AFTERNOON AND IS LARGELY
CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEABREEZE FRONT THAT WILL
PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND. THE END RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS
FAR INLAND AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST
OF THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO KMOB
DURING THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY. A RESPITE FROM RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE WEAKENING
MCS PUSHES EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH THE UPCOMING TAFS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 12Z THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THIS MCS AFFECTING THE AREA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS, LIKELY VFR, WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON
THURSDAY ONCE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD PASSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PRETTY
BENIGN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ONLY TIME PERIOD WHERE WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS RISE TO AROUND 4
FEET IS AFTER A DECENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. PG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 84 69 85 62 84 64 86 / 30 90 70 70 40 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 75 84 74 85 66 83 69 84 / 30 80 60 70 50 10 10 10
DESTIN 76 85 76 85 68 85 71 86 / 30 80 60 70 50 10 10 10
EVERGREEN 69 86 67 83 59 85 60 87 / 30 90 70 70 40 10 0 10
WAYNESBORO 68 82 67 81 59 82 60 85 / 40 90 60 60 30 10 0 10
CAMDEN 68 82 66 80 59 81 60 84 / 30 90 70 70 40 10 0 10
CRESTVIEW 70 87 69 85 60 86 61 89 / 30 90 60 80 50 10 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
MB
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