366
FXUS64 KMOB 290554
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SEABREEZE CONVECTION, RIGHT ON SCHEDULE PER THE CAM GUIDANCE,
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY, THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG WILL MEAN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY DUE TO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. THUS
THE RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 FOR THE MS
COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST OF THE CWA, A MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS DEVELOPING MCS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST GULF AND SE TX/SW LA. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS 02Z THIS EVENING AS THIS
ENTIRE CLUSTER PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL REMAIN FROM GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS BECOME EVEN MORE
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
A RESPITE FROM CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LIKELY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
AS THE MAIN OUTFLOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA AND
ALLOW CONVECTION TO REGENERATE ON THURSDAY. SO EVEN WITH A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS, THE DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THIS AND REGENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXTENT OF HOW MUCH THE
AIRMASS WILL BE WORKED OVER.
ANOTHER LONGER CONVECTIVE RESPITE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AS MORE SUBSIDENT AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE.
THE LAST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOOKING LIKE AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE
MODEST TO HIGH INSTABILITY.
A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO
THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
RETURN FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY DEPARTING EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
NEAR THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. VERY BRIEF
PERIODS MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND WINDS GUSTING TO
20 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 12Z, ALL
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE AIDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS IN
THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. MOB AND BFM WILL SEE
THESE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z, JKA BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z, AND PNS BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. A STRONG DRY PUNCH WILL FOLLOW
THE MCS, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO TAKE HOLD BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z. HOWEVER, SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MOISTURE
RETURNS ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
GRADIENT MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH 1-2 FEET SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER AND INCREASE TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL REACH AROUND 3 FEET BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE
STRONGER GRADIENT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME BY LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 69 86 62 85 63 86 67 88 / 20 70 30 0 0 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 74 87 67 84 67 86 71 87 / 20 70 40 0 0 0 10 10
DESTIN 76 87 69 86 70 86 73 88 / 30 70 50 0 0 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 67 85 60 85 60 87 62 90 / 20 70 20 0 0 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 67 82 57 83 60 86 63 89 / 20 30 10 0 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 66 82 59 82 60 85 63 88 / 20 70 10 0 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 68 88 62 87 60 88 62 91 / 30 70 40 0 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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