572
FXUS64 KMOB 290812
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
312 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL INDUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX
OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VARIOUS
CONVECTIVELY AIDED MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THEN PUSHING QUICKLY TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST BETWEEN 7 AM AND NOON.
ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE CONCERN GIVEN THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ISSUES IN
MORE URBANIZED AREAS LIKE MOBILE AND PENSACOLA THIS MORNING. POP
VALUES OF 100 PERCENT REFLECT THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE COOLER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE STORMS DUE TO THIS RAIN COOLED AIRMASS, BUT
SOME DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORTUNATELY, THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOMES
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP SUSTAINED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
TONIGHT, ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE AS A WEAK LANDBREEZE
SERVES AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK AS DRY AIR ALOFT
KEEPS OVERALL INSTABILITY IN CHECK. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THAT IS PROJECTED TO STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
EVEN SOME HAIL DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 2000 J/KG. POP
VALUES OF 60 TO 70 PERCENT REFLECT THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE RISK
AS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS
THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING, A VERY PLEASANT PERIOD OF
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH.
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG, BUT WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WILL ALSO BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SEABREEZE CYCLE WITH
CONVECTION LARGELY LIMITED TO EITHER THE SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE
ITSELF OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM THE INITIAL SEABREEZE
INDUCED CONVECTION. OVERALL POP REFLECTS THIS DIURNAL PATTERN OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY. PG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVELY AIDED GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. MOB AND BFM WILL
SEE THESE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z, JKA BETWEEN 13Z
AND 15Z, AND PNS BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. A STRONG DRY PUNCH WILL
FOLLOW THE MCS, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS TO TAKE HOLD BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z. HOWEVER, SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MOISTURE
RETURNS ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FEW WATERSPOUTS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHORT
DURATION CONCERNS, PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE WATERS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
WATERS, AND SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND
SEAS MAY RISE TO AROUND 4 FEET, BUT NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, BUT WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS. THIS HIGH WILL
THEN LINGER OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND VERY CALM SEAS
EXPECTED. SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ALONG A WEAK LANDBREEZE FRONT, BUT ANY WIND AND SEA
IMPACTS WILL HIGHLY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. PG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 83 69 88 63 85 63 86 67 / 100 20 50 10 0 0 10 10
PENSACOLA 82 73 88 67 84 67 86 71 / 100 40 60 20 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 85 75 88 69 86 70 86 73 / 90 40 60 30 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 82 67 87 60 85 59 87 62 / 100 20 70 10 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 82 67 84 58 83 60 86 63 / 90 10 50 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 81 66 83 59 82 60 85 63 / 90 20 70 10 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 84 67 89 62 87 60 88 62 / 100 30 70 10 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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