473
FXUS64 KMOB 292331
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS OUR LOCAL REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US AND A LARGE TROPICAL UPPER LOW (OR TUTT)
THAT IS OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL PASS OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THAT TIMEFRAME. FORCING FROM THESE
IMPULSES, AS WELL AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, WILL GIVE
WAY TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME, DIURNAL PATTERN, WITH OFFSHORE/COASTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, STORMS SPREADING INLAND VIA
OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON,
AND ACTIVITY DISSIPATING DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STORMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE IN NATURE DUE TO
A LACK OF SHEAR, AND THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW-MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
WITH SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF HIGHER-END RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN CLOSER
TO THE COAST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE TUTT OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
ALTHOUGH LINGERING WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST
TO BUILD IN CLOSER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF RATHER UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH OFFSHORE PRIOR TO STALLING, ALLOWING
FOR A DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. THIS IN TURN GIVES US MUCH
LOWER POPS (ONLY AROUND 10-30%) AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY, FRIDAY
(4TH OF JULY), AND THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S, POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS THE
UPPER 90S IN SOME SPOTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THANKS TO AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING A LOW RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL DROPS TO MID LEVEL MVFR WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 23Z, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST
LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER LAND BEGINNING MONDAY
MORNING, WITH LOCAL DROPS IN CONDITIONS TO MID LEVEL MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME BRINGING STRONG AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /96
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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