987
FXUS64 KMOB 300521
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1221 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
WE ARE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH GAVE US SEVERAL DAYS OF
VERY HOT/DRY WEATHER RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA, WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. BY THE WEEKEND, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTH, LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PWATS
GENERALLY ABOVE 2 INCHES AND FORCING INDUCED BY THE SHORTWAVES
ALOFT AND THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH DAY. ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING
OVER OUR MARINE ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST, PULSE-TYPE STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AS WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN, CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL, AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BIT AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, LOWERING SLIGHTLY FURTHER INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S BY THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. WE DECIDED
TO EXTEND THE CURRENT AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW. THE REASON BEHIND THIS IS THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST. AFTER A DAY OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 108-112, THESE
OPPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROVIDE VERY LITTLE RELIEF ACROSS THE
AREA, LIKELY LEADING TO INCREASED HEAT-RELATED VULNERABILITIES. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 105-110
ACROSS THE AREA. OF COURSE, THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOMORROW AND WHETHER OR NOT RAINFALL COULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA. USING TODAY AS A BASELINE, VERY LITTLE
MIXING OCCURRED, ALLOWING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO HIT OUR 108 CRITERIA
BY AS EARLY AS 11AM, LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT THIS CAN HAPPEN
AGAIN TOMORROW (AND POSSIBLY THE FOLLOWING DAY OR TWO). WE WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL GENERALLY BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING A BRIEF BUMP TO MODERATE ON THURSDAY FOR OUR WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE; HOWEVER,
I CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY IMPACTING KPNS OR KJKA
THROUGH 08Z. OTHERWISE, A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF
AND ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY SUNSET. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 93 77 93 75 91 74 90 / 20 50 10 60 30 60 40 70
PENSACOLA 79 92 80 92 78 92 76 89 / 20 40 10 40 30 60 40 60
DESTIN 81 92 81 91 79 90 78 88 / 10 30 10 30 20 60 50 60
EVERGREEN 75 94 76 94 74 92 72 88 / 20 50 20 60 40 60 50 70
WAYNESBORO 74 95 74 94 73 92 71 90 / 30 60 20 60 30 50 30 60
CAMDEN 76 93 75 95 74 91 72 88 / 20 50 20 60 30 60 40 60
CRESTVIEW 76 93 76 93 74 92 73 89 / 10 50 10 60 30 80 40 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page