966
FXUS64 KMOB 301115
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
615 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE PROLONGED HEAT ACROSS THE AREA.
WE'LL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE, BEFORE THE TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP (THOUGH ONLY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES). UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAINED ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTH,
WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, DAMPENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, KEEPING A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE
WEAKENING RIDGE, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE TODAY THAN
WE SAW YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
WHILE WE MAY MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON, GIVEN THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WE
SHOULD STILL SEE THOSE HEAT INDICES REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
REGARDLESS, LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 70S,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE
CONDITIONS WILL EXACERBATE ANY HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE'LL START TO SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED TOUGH DIGS INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY, AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND A GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY
THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT REACHES, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BOUNDARY
REACHING OUR AREA AND LINGERING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. THUS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PACKAGE. /73
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE
HOUR; HOWEVER, KEPT PREVAILING TSRA FOR KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH 14Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR REDEVELOPMENT. AFTER A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORMS,
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE, HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP, THOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY
BECOME NECESSARY IF THE COVERAGE INCREASES AND/OR THE TIMING IS
QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR
LESS. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 94 77 93 77 94 75 92 74 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 70 40
PENSACOLA 92 80 92 80 93 79 92 76 / 60 30 60 20 60 40 70 60
DESTIN 92 81 92 82 92 80 92 78 / 60 20 50 20 60 40 70 70
EVERGREEN 96 75 95 75 95 72 93 72 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 70 40
WAYNESBORO 96 74 94 74 95 72 92 70 / 60 40 60 20 60 30 60 30
CAMDEN 95 75 93 75 94 73 92 72 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 60 30
CRESTVIEW 93 75 93 75 94 74 93 73 / 60 20 60 20 60 30 70 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...NONE.
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