489
FXUS64 KMOB 312340
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY....
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND
SHIFTS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEST OVER THE GULF
TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DECREASE IN UPPER SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT INCHES ITS WAY SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-20
AND I-10 BY SUNDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INCONSISTENT IN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, POPS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK ARE A
CHALLENGE TO PLACE AS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ADD IN SOME GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG/JUST
SOUTHEAST OF I-65, AND MOISTURE PLACEMENT IS INTERESTING. AM
LEANING TOWARDS AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FOR THE MOISTURE/POP
CONUNDRUM, WITH THE ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ON THIS VEIN, A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
SHIFTING BEST POPS SOUTHWARD. FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORECAST AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND BECOMES MORE
SCATTERED WELL SOUTHEAST OF I-65 BY THURSDAY TAPERING TO ISOLATED
NORTHWEST OF I-65.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
FRIDAY (90-95) DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S NORTHEAST OF A BUTLER TO
CRESTVIEW LINE, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY. HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-106 RANGE FRIDAY DROP TO BELOW 100 BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK, TO UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MAINTAINED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, HEAT INDICES RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 RANGE BY THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO SEE A DROP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE AROUND 70 TO LOW 70S
INLAND FROM THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR/ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BRING A MODEST RISE IN LOW TEMPERATURES, TO THE 70-75 DEGREE
RANGE INLAND, 75-78 ALONG THE COAST.
A DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SWELL ON AREA BEACHES WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO A LOW RISK FRIDAY INTO THE COMING
WEEK. /16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING WELL INLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY, MAINLY INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ALONG
THE COAST TO INCLUDE MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR
LESS. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 93 75 91 73 90 73 88 / 20 70 40 90 50 80 40 80
PENSACOLA 80 92 78 91 76 89 76 87 / 20 60 40 90 60 80 60 80
DESTIN 81 92 81 91 78 89 77 88 / 20 50 40 90 70 90 70 80
EVERGREEN 75 95 73 92 72 87 71 86 / 30 70 40 90 50 80 40 70
WAYNESBORO 74 94 73 91 71 89 70 88 / 30 70 50 70 30 60 20 50
CAMDEN 75 94 73 90 71 86 69 85 / 30 70 40 80 40 80 30 60
CRESTVIEW 75 94 74 91 73 89 72 86 / 10 60 30 90 50 90 60 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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