791
FXUS64 KMOB 011832
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
132 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NOW THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY....
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND
SHIFTS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEST OVER THE GULF
TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DECREASE IN UPPER SUBSIDENCE WILL
BRING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE COMING WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT INCHES ITS WAY SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
EVENTUALLY STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-20 AND I-10 BY SUNDAY. A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH INCONSISTENT IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS, POPS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK ARE A CHALLENGE TO PLACE AS THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEGINS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COMING WEEK. THIS SHIFTS
A SW-NE BAND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SOUTHEAST A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE THE BAND PUSHES TO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN GULF. THIS LEAVES THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST, TAPERING TO
ISOLATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THURSDAY ON. LOOKING AT ANY STORM
ISSUES, IN THE BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE H20
LEVELS >= 2"), INSTABILITY IS MODEST (MLCAPES TOPPING OUT IN THE
1000-1500J/KG), WITH STORMS SPEED OUTSIDE OF PROPAGATION <15KTS.
EFFICIENT RAINERS FROM A MOSTLY SATURATED PROFILE IS LIKELY, WHEN
COMBINED WITH SLOW SPEED, ALLOWING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO BRING
LOCAL WATER ISSUES ESPECIALLY TO POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. MORE SO IF
STORM VECTOR WINDS WORK BETTER WITH A LOCAL BOUNDARY. AM NOT
EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO BE OF A MORE CONTINUOUS NATURE, ALLOWING
SOME RELIEF FOR WATER DRAINAGE. IN THE COMING WEEK (TUESDAY ON) AS
DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, ANY
TALLER STORMS MAY GRAB THIS DRIER AIR AND ENHANCE DOWNWARD VELOCITY,
MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF I-65.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY (90-95) DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S NORTHEAST OF A BUTLER TO
CRESTVIEW LINE, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY. HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-106 RANGE TODAY DROP TO BELOW 100 BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK, TO UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MAINTAINED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, HEAT INDICES RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 RANGE BY THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LOW
TEMPERATURES ALSO SEE A DROP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE AROUND 70 TO LOW 70S INLAND FROM
THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR/ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BRING
A MODEST RISE IN LOW TEMPERATURES, TO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE INLAND,
75-78 ALONG THE COAST.
A DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SWELL ON AREA BEACHES WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO A LOW RISK INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MVFR TO IFR
MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING
WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 91 74 89 73 86 72 87 / 30 90 60 90 50 90 60 90
PENSACOLA 79 91 77 89 76 86 75 87 / 20 70 70 90 70 90 70 90
DESTIN 80 91 79 89 77 87 77 88 / 20 70 70 90 80 90 80 80
EVERGREEN 74 93 72 89 71 84 71 87 / 50 90 60 90 60 90 60 80
WAYNESBORO 73 90 71 88 71 86 70 87 / 60 90 40 60 30 70 40 70
CAMDEN 73 90 71 87 70 82 70 85 / 50 90 60 80 40 80 50 70
CRESTVIEW 75 93 74 88 72 85 71 87 / 20 80 60 100 70 100 70 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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