875
FXUS64 KMOB 020529
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1229 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NOW THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY....
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND
SHIFTS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEST OVER THE GULF
TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DECREASE IN UPPER SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE COMING WEEK. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT INCHES ITS WAY SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-20 AND I-10 BY
SUNDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INCONSISTENT IN DETERMINISTIC
MODELS, POPS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK ARE A CHALLENGE TO
PLACE AS THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEGINS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, SHIFTING EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE COMING WEEK. THIS SHIFTS A SW-NE BAND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHEAST A BIT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE THE BAND PUSHES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN GULF. THIS LEAVES THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST, TAPERING TO ISOLATED NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 THURSDAY ON. LOOKING AT ANY STORM ISSUES, IN THE BAND
OF HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS >= 2"),
INSTABILITY IS MODEST (MLCAPES TOPPING OUT IN THE 1000-1500J/KG),
WITH STORMS SPEED OUTSIDE OF PROPAGATION <15KTS. EFFICIENT RAINERS
FROM A MOSTLY SATURATED PROFILE IS LIKELY, WHEN COMBINED WITH
SLOW SPEED, ALLOWING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO BRING LOCAL WATER
ISSUES ESPECIALLY TO POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. MORE SO IF STORM VECTOR
WINDS WORK BETTER WITH A LOCAL BOUNDARY. AM NOT EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO BE OF A MORE CONTINUOUS NATURE, ALLOWING SOME RELIEF
FOR WATER DRAINAGE. IN THE COMING WEEK (TUESDAY ON) AS DRIER AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, ANY TALLER
STORMS MAY GRAB THIS DRIER AIR AND ENHANCE DOWNWARD VELOCITY,
MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF I-65.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY (90-95) DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S NORTHEAST OF A BUTLER TO
CRESTVIEW LINE, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY. HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-106 RANGE TODAY DROP TO BELOW 100 BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK, TO UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MAINTAINED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, HEAT INDICES RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 RANGE BY THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO SEE A DROP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE AROUND 70 TO LOW 70S
INLAND FROM THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR/ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BRING A MODEST RISE IN LOW TEMPERATURES, TO THE 70-75 DEGREE
RANGE INLAND, 75-78 ALONG THE COAST.
A DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SWELL ON AREA BEACHES WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO A LOW RISK INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED UNDERNEATH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING NEARER THE
COAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT
TO MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING
WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 89 73 86 72 87 73 89 / 60 90 50 90 60 90 40 80
PENSACOLA 77 89 76 86 75 87 76 90 / 70 90 70 90 70 90 50 70
DESTIN 79 89 77 87 77 88 78 90 / 70 90 80 90 80 80 50 70
EVERGREEN 72 89 71 84 71 87 70 90 / 60 90 60 90 60 80 40 70
WAYNESBORO 71 88 71 86 70 87 70 90 / 40 60 30 70 40 70 30 60
CAMDEN 71 87 70 82 70 85 70 89 / 60 80 40 80 50 70 30 60
CRESTVIEW 74 88 72 85 71 87 72 90 / 60 100 70 100 70 90 40 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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