361
FXUS64 KMOB 021843
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
143 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
GOOD NEWS IS WE ARE LOOKING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL COME WITH A RATHER SOGGY
WEEKEND AND BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO.
THIS WILL KEEP US IN A RATHER SOGGY PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A
LOFT ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. AT THE
SURFACE, A RATHER WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY STALL EITHER ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RATHER SOGGY AND EARLY STARTS TO THE
NORMAL SUMMER STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH STORMS
LIKELY BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST AND STALLED FRONT AND SPREADING
INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND
EAST OF I-65 WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WEST OF I-65. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE COMING DAYS. NONETHELESS, THE BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WHILE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED TO
MAYBE NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME; CONTINUED RAINFALL OVER THE SAME
AREAS WITH GREATER THAN 2 INCH PWATS COULD RESULT INTO SOME WATER
LOGGED AREAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE; ESPECIALLY,
AS WE GO LATER INTO THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE AN
EXACT AREA WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN GIVEN THE NATURE OF STORMS
AND NO TRUE SYNOPTIC FOCUS; THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING
WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO PARTS OF ESCAMBIA, COVINGTON AND
CONECUH COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON
RAIN RATES AND HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON A MORE FLOOD PRONE URBAN
AREA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE INCREASED RAIN COVERAGE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE 90S FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST. SO AT LEAST IT
WILL NOT BE HOT.
BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL DROPS TO MID LEVEL MVFR IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WERE NOTED AT 17Z. AM EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION WILL DECREASE OVER LAND THIS EVENING,
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY'S HEAT. REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE COAST
IS EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE, WITH AREAS ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE
AFFECTED.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME VARIABLE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIPS JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST AND STALLS. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 90 74 86 72 87 73 90 / 50 80 50 80 60 90 50 80
PENSACOLA 77 90 76 85 76 87 77 90 / 50 90 60 80 80 90 50 70
DESTIN 78 90 77 87 77 89 78 90 / 50 90 70 90 80 80 50 70
EVERGREEN 72 90 72 85 71 87 70 90 / 60 80 50 80 60 90 50 80
WAYNESBORO 72 89 70 87 70 86 70 90 / 50 50 20 60 40 70 30 60
CAMDEN 72 88 70 83 70 84 70 88 / 50 70 40 70 50 80 40 70
CRESTVIEW 73 89 72 86 72 87 72 90 / 60 90 70 90 70 90 50 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page