022
FXUS64 KMOB 211736
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION, DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS BOUNDARY
HAS MANAGED TO PUSH INTO OUR LOCAL AREA, AND IS CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OVER THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. COVERAGE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BUT AS WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH THIS
TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, AS WELL
AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS.
BY THE START OF THE WEEK, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL HELP
TO SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT (FOR LATE AUGUST STANDARDS) SOUTHWARD,
WITH IT POTENTIALLY SWEEPING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. IF THIS
MANAGES TO OCCUR, A MUCH DRIER AND NOTICABLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK
ISOLATED AT BEST FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. OF COURSE, IF THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN WE COULD SEE A BIT OF A WETTER WEEK,
BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING IS RATHER LOW AT THIS
POINT.
HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LOW TO
MID 70S FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, DECREASING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY MIDWEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE COAST SPREADS
INLAND AND INCREASES IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST, THEN CONVECTION BEGINS TO
SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY MORNING. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
TYPICALLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS PREVAILS OVER INTERIOR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING,
THEN A VARIABLE FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
A GENERAL LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS TURN MORE OFFSHORE FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 91 73 90 72 92 72 93 / 40 70 20 60 20 40 10 20
PENSACOLA 76 91 76 89 75 90 74 92 / 30 60 30 60 30 40 10 20
DESTIN 77 90 77 89 77 89 76 92 / 30 50 40 60 30 40 20 20
EVERGREEN 72 92 71 89 70 92 69 94 / 40 70 30 50 20 30 10 10
WAYNESBORO 72 89 70 91 69 92 69 94 / 40 50 20 40 10 20 10 10
CAMDEN 72 90 71 89 70 91 69 91 / 40 50 30 40 20 20 10 0
CRESTVIEW 72 91 71 89 71 90 71 93 / 30 70 20 70 20 40 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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