652
FXUS64 KMOB 031117
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
617 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THE
REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE RAIN FREE AS DRIER NORTHERLY AIR MOVES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE, THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE COAST. A COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS, STRONG
LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH SEVERAL
EASTERLY WAVES PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST, AND ADDED UPPER
WEAKNESS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH, COMES TOGETHER ALLOWING FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THESE AREAS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT THE UPPER TROUGH WESTWARD
SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS
ROTATES CLOCKWISE IN RESPONSE, ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND (GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
RISING OVER 2" OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY).
PRECIPITATION RETURNS FORECAST AREA-WIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DECREASE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY (LOW TO MID 80S). HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE BUILDING EAST
COAST UPPER RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT BEING TONIGHT, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
WELL NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS, THEN INCREASING UPPER SUBSIDENCE, WILL
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH
OF I-10 TO LOW 70S SOUTH TO THE COAST MID WEEK.
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BRING A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH SURF HEIGHTS
AVERAGING 5 FEET FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOME MOSTLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS TODAY, THEN RETURN TO A NORTHEAST FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS BY THIS
EVENING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO NEAR SHORE
AND OPEN GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF BEING EXTENDED
LONGER.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 66 84 68 83 69 85 68 / 10 10 10 30 50 30 40 20
PENSACOLA 84 69 84 72 83 72 84 71 / 10 10 10 30 50 30 40 10
DESTIN 85 69 84 72 82 72 83 72 / 10 10 10 20 50 30 40 10
EVERGREEN 85 63 86 67 84 68 84 67 / 0 0 0 10 30 20 40 10
WAYNESBORO 83 63 84 66 82 68 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 20 10 30 10
CAMDEN 82 62 84 65 83 67 82 67 / 0 0 0 10 20 20 30 10
CRESTVIEW 84 64 84 69 82 68 83 68 / 0 0 10 10 50 30 40 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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