163
FXUS64 KMOB 051803
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
103 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS LOUISIANA AND GETS
ABSORB BY A LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN OR DIRTY SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A PLUME OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH PWATS LIKELY APPROACHING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
STEADILY INCREASING ASCENT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
HELPING SLOWLY WHITTLE AWAY AT INCREASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND JUST PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
SOME RAIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, CONCERNS WILL MAINLY JUST REMAIN AT
THE COASTLINE WITH HIGH SURF, MINOR COASTAL OVERWASH AND HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LEADING TO SOME DRYING OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. RATHER ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE MORE STANDARD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ALONG ANY SEABREEZE THAT DOES DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR FURTHER
INLAND AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS HELPING TO
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER IN SOME
SPOTS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH COVERAGE DECREASING BY THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL, MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING,
BEFORE LOWERING BACK DOWN TO MVFR BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AT THE BASE OF A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE MONDAY WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 83 70 87 70 89 70 87 / 60 50 20 30 10 20 10 20
PENSACOLA 73 84 72 86 73 88 73 87 / 70 50 10 20 0 20 10 20
DESTIN 72 85 72 86 73 87 73 85 / 50 50 10 20 0 20 10 20
EVERGREEN 69 86 68 89 68 90 66 87 / 40 40 20 10 0 20 10 30
WAYNESBORO 68 83 68 86 69 88 66 85 / 60 50 20 20 10 20 0 10
CAMDEN 68 84 67 88 67 88 67 85 / 40 40 20 10 10 20 10 20
CRESTVIEW 70 86 69 87 68 88 67 86 / 50 40 20 10 0 20 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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