166
FXUS64 KMOB 070537
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1237 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A WEAK UPPER ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL MORE BANDS OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME LOCALIZED, MAINLY NUISANCE TYPE,
FLOODING POTENTIAL WHERE TRAINING OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY OVER MISSOURI, AND
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA THAT COULD BECOME A
FOCUS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SEND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO AGAIN INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NBM POPS TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THESE POPS FURTHER AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
BEACH FORECAST: THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RIP
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER BUMP IN THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO HIGH ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF OUR BEACHES, SO UPDATED THE
AFTERNOON SURF ZONE FORECAST WITH THIS INCREASED HIGH POTENTIAL.
/22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY AN IFR/MVFR CEILING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CEILING GRADUALLY IMPROVES TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE COAST, THEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE LOWERED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, THE SCA WAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1
PM. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
THE GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
FRONT POTENTIALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 87 68 86 64 78 61 81 / 20 20 10 20 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 73 87 71 86 66 80 64 81 / 10 20 10 20 20 0 0 0
DESTIN 73 87 72 86 66 81 64 82 / 10 10 10 20 20 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 68 89 65 86 59 80 54 83 / 20 20 10 20 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 68 85 62 83 61 77 57 80 / 20 20 0 10 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 68 87 64 81 59 76 56 80 / 20 20 10 20 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 68 89 67 86 61 80 57 81 / 10 20 10 20 20 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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