532
FXUS64 KMOB 070555
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1255 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MOST OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED FOR THE EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS QUICKLY
TRAVERSING WESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS OF 05Z. MOST OF
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT SHOWERS AND STORMS FLARING
UP OVER THE GULF AND NEAR THE COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH OUT OF THIS OVERNIGHT
ROUND AS IT'S MOVING AT A FAST PACE - JUST A GOOD SOAKING. AS WE
ROLL TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
LIGHTS UP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL BETWEEN 19-
23Z, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65. THE 3-HR HREF PMMS
HIGHLIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH 2+ INCHES OF RAIN BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, NOT EVERYWHERE
IN OUR AREA WILL SEE RAIN TODAY, IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS, BUT EXPECT
A GOOD DOWNPOUR IF YOU DO GET RAIN TODAY.
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS MINIMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT
ISOLATED COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD WESTWARD, THE DOOR OPENS FOR A SHORTWAVE TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A SURGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
BEACH FORECAST - RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE RIP CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE THAT
WE SHOULD START TO SEE A STEADY FALL AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE
RISK REMAINS MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHARP INCREASE
IN THE RIP CURRENT PROBABILITIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
PROBABILITIES INDICATING A SOLID HIGH RISK ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
07/MB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY AN IFR/MVFR CEILING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CEILING GRADUALLY IMPROVES TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE COAST, THEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. NO IMPACT EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 88 68 86 64 81 61 82 / 20 20 10 20 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 73 88 71 86 66 80 64 82 / 10 20 10 20 20 0 0 0
DESTIN 74 87 72 85 66 80 64 82 / 10 10 10 20 20 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 69 90 66 86 60 80 56 83 / 20 20 10 30 20 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 68 85 63 84 61 79 57 81 / 30 20 0 10 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 68 87 64 83 60 77 56 81 / 20 20 10 30 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 68 89 67 86 61 79 57 82 / 10 20 10 20 20 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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