203
FXUS64 KMOB 291731
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1231 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SO
FAR THIS SEASON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BARRELS INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE
BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LINE OF PRECIPITATION.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND AM ANTICIPATING THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN MOSTLY AS SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF MOVES WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER
LOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OR CENTRAL GULF, AND DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AND WHERE
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORMS COULD DETERMINE IF OUR AREA ENDS
UP WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OR MUCH MORE COVERAGE. HAVE FOR
NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST, THEN THE COLDEST AIR YET OF THE SEASON
FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
INLAND TO NEAR 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE JUST A TAD WARMER, THEN LOWS GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 50S
AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST
THEN MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY TUESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN
A MODERATE RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO
EAST TO VFR. A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND NOON TOMORROW. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW LATER DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS FROM 4 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND
SOUNDS BEGINNING AT 4 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY, AND WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS AFTER THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 1
PM THURSDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 49 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 53 65 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 53 65 48 68 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 47 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 47 61 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 47 60 38 66 / 10 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 46 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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