346
FXUS64 KMOB 291906
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
206 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
- THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SO
FAR THIS SEASON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW
LOCALIZED INTERIOR AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FROST OF
THE SEASON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD EXIT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS. BY THIS WEEKEND, A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
AREA, LIKELY EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER LOW BY THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY (DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
OR SLOW THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA). IF A LOW DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS FOR IT TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA IN A COOL/STABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND THEREFORE WOULD LEAD
TO AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES, ANOTHER FRONT
WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY, STEADILY
INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY SATURDAY. TEMPS DROP A BIT
ON SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE OVERRUNNING RAIN
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS, EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. WITH A RATHER
SMALL T/TD SPREAD, A FEW INTERIOR AREAS (GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84) MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING A MODERATE
RISK FOR THURSDAY. A LOW RISK FOLLOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO
EAST TO VFR. A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND NOON TOMORROW. MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR
LOCAL MARINE ZONES. A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
10PM TONIGHT FOR OUR GULF WATERS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 1PM THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT IS ALSO IN
PLACE FOR OUR LOCAL AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH 7AM THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
BY FRIDAY. WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 47 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 51 65 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 54 65 48 68 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 47 63 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 47 62 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 47 60 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 44 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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