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FXUS64 KMOB 300424
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
...NEW UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY.
- THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SO
FAR THIS SEASON FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW
LOCALIZED INTERIOR AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FROST OF
THE SEASON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL DOMINATE
THE PATTERN. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
AREA, LOOKING AT THE MODELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY, COOL AND DRY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR OUR AREA, INCLUDING FOR HALLOWEEN.
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES. GENERALLY, 20-30% POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE SYTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE MODELS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED, BUT GENERALLY THE GFS IS MORE ON THE RAINIER SIDE AND EURO
IS DRIER FOR THIS SYSTEM. SO, POPS WERE LEFT AS IS WITH NBM FOR NOW.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SEVERITY
OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT DUE TO
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. THAT COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND DRY
WEATHER RESUMES FOR THE AREA FOR THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. MSW
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS BRIEFLY FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOWERING CEILINGS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDMORNING FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS SUBSIDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BY FRIDAY. WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY BY SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 50 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 52 66 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 57 67 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 47 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 47 62 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 46 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 48 65 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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