276
FXUS64 KMOB 021720
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1119 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE OPEN GULF
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
-PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW SWEEPS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE COMING WEEK, WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW, OVER THE GULF. A REINFORCING FRONT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE,
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS (AND PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES AROUND 0.2"-0.3")
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. A DECENTLY DRY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COMING FRONT (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES LESS THAN
1.0") WILL HELP TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AREAS AND MOST
WATER AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
IS DRY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE LATEST SREF
PAINTING ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MODELS PAINTED MORE RAINSHOWERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PASSING FRONT, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A
TREND OF SHIFTING THE RAINSHOWERS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
LAST FEW RUNS. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH THE CURRENT PACKAGE.
PATCHY FROST IS A POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84, AND IN LOCALITIES WHERE WINDS DROP TO
NEAR CALM.
MONDAY ON, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, THEN A BIT SOUTH OVER THE GULF PROPER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE STALLING
INTO MID WEEK, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE FLOW IS LIGHT, SO MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOW. THE RESULT
IS A DRY FORECAST, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.
TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES, SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY DROP TO BELOW SEASONAL 65-70 FOR MONDAY. FROM THERE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO A WELL ABOVE SEASONAL UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84
TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-10 SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS RISE INTO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL COUNTER-BALANCE AN INCREASING TIDAL CYCLE TO KEEP
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME A MORE MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND A FRONT CROSSING AREA
WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER AREA WATERS MID WEEK,
BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 42 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 47 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 73 49 69 52 / 10 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 73 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 67 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 68 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 73 40 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051-053-054.
FL...NONE.
MS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067.
GM...NONE.
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