650
FXUS64 KMOB 022324
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
524 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT.
-SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
MARINE WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
A RATHER PLEASANT WEEK IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEK AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS, ONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, WILL QUICKLY EXIT STAGE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US TONIGHT
LEADING TO DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RE-ENFORCE THE COOLER DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY REAL HAZARD THIS WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY TO MAYBE AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE FOR A LITTLE DRIER ACROSS THE
AREA, IT SEEMS LOGICAL THAT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MIGHT GET A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST.
HREF AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 38
DEGREES IS AROUND 40-50% NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND PROBABILITY OF
WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH IS ROUGHLY 70% ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THUS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
LEADING TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL WARMING PERIOD WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWS SLOWLY REACHING THE LOW 60S BY
THE WEEKEND. NO RAIN CHANCES ON THE HORIZON UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WHEN A RATHER SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. EVEN THEN GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY ENTHUSED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE JUST END UP DRY. BB-8
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME A MORE MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND A FRONT CROSSING AREA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
AREA WATERS MID WEEK, BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS THE END OF THE WEEK. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 41 67 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 46 68 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 49 69 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 38 68 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 36 65 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 36 65 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 38 68 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051-053-054.
FL...NONE.
MS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067.
GM...NONE.
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