688
FXUS64 KMOB 041653
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1053 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
-A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
-ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
-THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE
FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL HANG UP
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WITH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER, MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND FIRST
FREEZE NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70'S TO LOWER 80'S THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EVEN SOME LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80'S ANTICIPATED SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STEADILY
WARM AS WELL, GOING FROM LOWER AND MIDDLE 40'S TONIGHT TO LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50'S BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60'S. AS
WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY, MOISTURE RETURN
WILL LIKELY BE ADEQUATE TO PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS BROAD, MODEST UPPER DIFLUENCE OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE AROUND 1,000J/KG OF SBCAPE,
WHICH COUPLED WITH AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A LOW END THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TRENDS IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE FORWARD
IN TIME. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY,
BECOMING A MODERATE RISK BY SATURDAY.
THANKS TO THE PRIOR SYSTEM IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE POTENT
UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FEATURE
AT MOST A FEW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN
THE COLD FRONTS WAKE, OUR COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON IS LOOKING
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70'S DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER. SUNDAY
NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30'S OVER THE INTERIOR
AND LOWER 40'S NEAR THE COAST. MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50'S. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
PROBABLE OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
THE NBM HAVE TRENDED COLDER THE PAST FEW RUNS, WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S NOW BEING FORECAST
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30'S ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. IT IS
POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER AS A MORE IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP APPEARS TO SET UP WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO RELAX
BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MM/25
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY BECOME A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, BECOMING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS
LIKELY THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK FOR ALL OUR MARINE
WATERS, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO GALE
FORCE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 48 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 73 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 73 58 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 76 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 73 42 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 73 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 75 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page