393
FXUS64 KMOB 050503
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1103 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE
MARINE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
PROBABLE FOR INTERIOR AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROF EVOLVES OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES. THE UPPER TROF PROGRESSES MAINLY INTO THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIVES
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS LATTER SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A
TRULY MASSIVE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES BY SUNDAY WHICH SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL FIRST BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TO NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
FRONTOLYTIC NATURE OF THE FRONT, IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH MODEST FORCING FROM A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO SUPPORT A LOW
END RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ACTION FROM THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BRINGS THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THE
FIRST FREEZE FOR INTERIOR AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THEN THURSDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 80S EXCEPT FOR MID 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, THEN HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT FOR UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL TREND MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE
OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS THEN
RECOVER TO 65 TO 70 BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST,
THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S AT THE COAST. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
FORECAST, AND SEASON SO FAR, WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. A
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY THEN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY BECOMES WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY, THEN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY, THEN
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE ENTIRE
MARINE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 48 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 76 59 76 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 59 76 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 42 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 43 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 42 77 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 44 79 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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