466
FXUS64 KMOB 141905
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
105 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84, INCLUDING MOBILE BAY AND
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
A VAST MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING ALL OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE FOG, A GENERAL CONSENSUS IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 84. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO DETERMINE IF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS
TO BE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE.
A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST THROUGH NOON THURSDAY
AS A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE REGION. AN EJECTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY EVOLVES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, WITH THE GFS BEING ABOUT 6-12 HOURS
FASTER, AS THE ECMWF REFORMS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERLY PLAINS ESSENTIALLY SLOWING DOWN THE TROUGH. REGARDLESS,
DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
(NBM) AT THIS TIME AND WE STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S ON SATURDAY, AND MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BECOME
WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AND COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 12 TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.
BEACH FORECAST - RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW THROUGH MID WEEK IN
THIS PATTERN. THE RIP CURRENT MOS PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT THE
RISK MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR MODERATE LEVELS BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY DEVELOP LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS PATCHES OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE,
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG MATERIALIZE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY, LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR TO VLIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES. FOG GRADUALLY LIFTS IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING DAYBREAK, AND
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TODAY, CALMING TONIGHT. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR
MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. DENSE FOG MAY ADVECT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO A SMALL PORTION OF THE COASTAL ALABAMA OFFSHORE ZONE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTS WESTERLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN BACK TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MIDWEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 52 76 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 74 60 76 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 57 73 61 75 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 47 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 49 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 48 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 44 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ052-053-
055-056-059-060-261>265.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR FLZ201-203-
205.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ075-076-
078-079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ630>632.
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