637
FXUS64 KMOB 160712
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
112 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK LATE IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FLOATING AROUND IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S MOST OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH
DAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STEADILY TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AND DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TO START OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S AND CLIMB INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY HAZARD
WE WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH EACH NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND CALM COOL NIGHTS ALLOW FOR
MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL US. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH, THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL STEADILY INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH AND JET
PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY LEAVE US ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS THE BEST DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.
GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSION, RAIN AND STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
HARD TO COME BY AND THAT IS EVEN NOTED WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED
STORMS AND NBM PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING ONLY BEING AROUND 20%
DESPITE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SECOND
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW AND AS A RESULT RAIN POTENTIAL IS A
LITTLER UNCERTAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LEAD COLD FRONT
HANGS UP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WHILE THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
RATHER ACTIVE, EXACT RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE IRONED OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. SO FOR NOW WE
ARE JUST GOING TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
RIP CURRENT PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A POTENTIAL
RISE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
A INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK BY THE WEEKEND. BB-8
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG IS DECREASING AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG. HOWEVER, SOME AREAS OF
IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS
OUT OF THE WEST- SOUTHWEST, FOG MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP WITH
MOSTLY LOW CEILINGS BEING THE ISSUE; HOWEVER IF WINDS RELAX,
VISBYS TO LIFR COULD BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY
TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY SET UP
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING EASTERLY BY NOON ON
MONDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDWEEK, INCREASING TO MODERATE ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 56 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 73 61 76 60 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 73 61 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 78 53 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 77 54 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 77 54 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 76 53 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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