457
FXUS64 KMOB 170027
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK LATE IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES SLOWLY RETREATS
NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES. A SURFACE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH PROGRESSES INTO THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. DESPITE
DRIER AIR FLOWING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, AM EXPECTING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A
LARGE UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND THE BAJA
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE A SECOND, TEMPORARILY
PHASED UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND A SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES
ORIENTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
SOME INTERESTING THINGS HAPPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
POWERFUL PACIFIC UPPER TROF QUICKLY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND FORMS AN UPPER LOW NEAR NORTHWEST MEXICO. THERE'S
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THE PLAINS SYSTEM EJECTS OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OR POSSIBLY BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. THERE'S A BIT BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH LOOKS TO
ADVANCE TO THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN
APPEARS TO LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH, TIMING AND TRAJECTORY.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE THE UPPER LOW,
THOUGH WHATEVER TRANSPIRES WITH THIS SYSTEM IS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 60 AT
THE COAST WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE
LOWER 60S AT THE COAST, THEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWER 50S WELL INLAND RANGING TO AROUND
60 AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S THEN TREND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
THEN GRADUALLY TREND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY AND TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME LOW CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLY PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10
AND WEST OF I-65 AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW, GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUPPORT LOW CEILINGS
OVER FOG BUT WE SAW HOW THAT WENT FOR US LAST NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
LIKELY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IFR VISBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE WITH MORE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CEILINGS AND VISBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT THEN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOMES
LIGHT TO MODERATE ON THURSDAY AND BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 79 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 60 76 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 60 75 61 75 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 52 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 55 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 51 75 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 53 78 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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