214
FXUS64 KMOB 170710
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
110 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK LATE IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE RAIN ARRIVES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN
CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING ACROSS ALABAMA AS DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FLOATING AROUND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY FLOATING AROUND SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS. LOWS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STEADILY TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY AND DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TO START
OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND CLIMB INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY HAZARD WE WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH EACH NIGHT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND CALM
COOL NIGHTS ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL US. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH, THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL STEADILY INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH AND JET
PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY LEAVE US ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS THE BEST DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.
GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSION, RAIN AND STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
HARD TO COME BY AND THAT IS EVEN NOTED WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED
STORMS AND NBM PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING ONLY BEING AROUND 20%
DESPITE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SECOND
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW. GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER COMPLICATED AS
WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AS THE LEAD COLD FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. WHILE THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE, EXACT
RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE
IRONED OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. SO FOR NOW WE ARE JUST GOING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
RIP CURRENT PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A POTENTIAL
RISE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND. BB-8
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME LOW CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLY PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10
AND WEST OF I-65 AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW, GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUPPORT LOW CEILINGS
OVER FOG BUT WE SAW HOW THAT WENT FOR US LAST NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
LIKELY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IFR VISBYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE WITH MORE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CEILINGS AND VISBYS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOMES LIGHT TO
MODERATE ON THURSDAY AND BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 79 57 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 78 60 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 76 60 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 81 52 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 79 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 79 51 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 80 53 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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