174
FXUS64 KMOB 171941
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK LATE IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE RAIN ARRIVES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY, A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SEPARATING A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FROM THE A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, LIKELY FLIRTING WITH A FEW RECORD
HIGHS BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS PASS WELL TO THE NORTH, ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEADS TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE
AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE.
RIP CURRENT PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A POTENTIAL
RISE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND. /13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG OR LOW CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITY FOR MOB AND BFM TERMINALS BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 09-13Z. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 60 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 60 75 62 76 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 49 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 55 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 50 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 49 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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