245
FXUS64 KMOB 191807
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1207 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE RAIN ARRIVES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE REMAIN DOMINATED UNDER AN ELONGATED RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE HUDSON BAY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED IN THE BASE OF A
DIGGING TROUGH IS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE FURTHER EAST. IN THE SHORT
TERM, THE RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND STEER THIS NEXT SYSTEM UP
AND OVER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, IT WILL ACT TO
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND, AND ADVANCE EASTWARD WITH MORE FORCE. THIS WILL
INITIALLY SHARPEN THE RIDGE BACK UP BUT THEN QUICKLY GET SHUNTED
EAST OUT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS, A BROAD AND EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE EMERALD COAST OF FLORIDA WILL SLIDE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL NOT SUCCESSFULLY PASS THROUGH
THE AREA, BUT RATHER STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA.
THE RIDGE WILL THEN SINK SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE RECONSOLIDATING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BEGINNING THURSDAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EAST. LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW PLUS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR DENSE
FOG, BOTH RADIATIONAL AND SEA FOG. THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOBILE BAY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF, TO
ADVECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WE WILL LACK ORGANIZED
LIFT AND/OR INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WILL TREAD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH WITH POPS. THAT BEING SAID, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA. THEREAFTER, MOISTURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER ALONG A BOUNDARY, WHICH COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE A HIGHER RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS STARTING FRIDAY. BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WITH THE UPCOMING FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE, BUT LARGE SPREAD IN HOW MODELS ARE
RESOLVING ALL THE SPECIFIC FEATURES, IS RESULTING IN LOW
PREDICTABILITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
MORNING FOG IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AT KBFM AT ISSUANCE
TIME, AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG TO DIMINISH WILL BE SOMETIME AROUND THE 16Z TO
18Z TIMEFRAME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL THEN FRESHEN TO MODERATE AND VEER TO THE
SOUTH INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLIES TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 60 78 62 79 / 0 0 10 40
PENSACOLA 61 75 64 77 / 0 0 0 20
DESTIN 62 76 65 76 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 56 83 57 81 / 0 0 0 30
WAYNESBORO 58 80 59 77 / 0 0 10 60
CAMDEN 58 80 57 78 / 0 0 0 40
CRESTVIEW 55 81 57 79 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ630>632-
634.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page