213
FXUS64 KMOB 050537
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
SEAS 4-7 FEET WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HAS BEEN DETECTING DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, AND IS SUPPORTED BY CAM GUIDANCE,
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFTING WANES. WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW PASSING FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO
SOUTHWEST AL. WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING, WE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND
PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO INDICATE LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR BOTH THE LAND AND MARINE AREAS, AND
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO
THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
WE ARE NOT GOING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE MUCH NEEDED RAIN, BUT IT
CERTAINLY IS RATHER RAW OUTSIDE WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT OF THE 50S. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MARCH THROUGH THE EASTERN US. A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES AS EACH PASSING
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INCREASED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE BOUNDARY LEADING TO AN OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM
RAIN. A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM THIS FIRST BAND OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
NBM PROBABILITIES, AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-65 HAVE ABOUT
A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADDING AN ADDITIONAL 2+ INCHES
THROUGH SUNDAY TO THE RAINFALL TOTAL. THIS WOULD GIVE EVENT TOTAL
RAINFALLS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE THIS IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, THE STEADY AND SLOW RATES SHOULD NOT
RESULT IN ANY MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA AND MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL BE RATHER BENEFICIAL TO OUR ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE SOME MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING WOULD BE THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND POOR
DRAINAGE METRO AREAS OF MOBILE AND PENSACOLA AND EVEN THEN IT WILL
MOSTLY BE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THE FINAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH ENOUGH DRY AIR INTO THE AREA TO GIVE US A BIT OF
A RESPITE FROM THE DREARY COLD RAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITHOUT ANY DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL BASICALLY HOVER IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BB-8
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
PREDOMINATELY LIFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY TO
IFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW IS LIKELY OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHILE WINDS REMAIN
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY OVER THE BAYS AND SOUNDS. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE AREA.
BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 46 55 46 55 / 90 60 60 80
PENSACOLA 50 58 51 57 / 70 70 50 90
DESTIN 51 63 51 58 / 60 70 60 90
EVERGREEN 43 55 43 55 / 90 60 60 80
WAYNESBORO 40 49 41 53 / 80 40 40 50
CAMDEN 40 51 40 52 / 80 40 40 60
CRESTVIEW 45 58 46 55 / 80 70 60 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ650-655-
670-675.
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