203
FXUS64 KMOB 052343
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
543 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS MOVING IN AS OF MIDDAY AS THE NEXT
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES
THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS ROUND WILL IMPACT US MOSTLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS BEING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS ROUND WILL LIKELY
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING
INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A MORE WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
A NEW ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE DEVELOPING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE FROM WEST TO EAST, WE FINALLY
EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF A 0.5-1.5" ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED ALONG
THE COAST. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING
ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST/TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT'S A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT WE
DID MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM.
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 84 TUESDAY MORNING. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS,
WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO LIFR LEVELS, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF WATERS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
34/JFB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 54 46 55 48 / 60 60 80 20
PENSACOLA 56 50 57 52 / 80 70 90 30
DESTIN 59 51 58 53 / 90 70 90 40
EVERGREEN 53 42 55 42 / 60 60 80 10
WAYNESBORO 49 41 55 42 / 30 40 40 10
CAMDEN 50 39 53 40 / 50 40 50 10
CRESTVIEW 56 46 55 45 / 80 70 90 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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