010
FXUS64 KMOB 150453
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1053 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR UNTIL
MID MORNING ON MONDAY. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP TO 10 DEGREES
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND TO AROUND 15 DEGREES OVER COASTAL
COUNTIES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
OPEN GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
A COLD SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON MONDAY AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 12 DEGREES INLAND AND AROUND 15
DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 20 WELL
INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 50
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
WELL INLAND TO AROUND 30 AT THE COAST. A WARMING TREND ENSUES ON
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN MOVES THROUGH.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS TREND COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES, AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES AS WELL. TEMPERATURES BECOME MILD BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S, AND LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DRIFT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY, THEN APPEARS TO BRIEFLY
STALL AND DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TO THE REGION LOOKS LIMITED BY SUNDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO 10% POPS FOR MONDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RETURN BACK NORTHWARD.
BASED ON RCMOS GUIDANCE, OPTED TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES FOR MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED UNTIL A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR ALL
BEACHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVER INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT,
WHILE NEAR THE COAST A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED.
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS PREVAILS ON MONDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH ON MONDAY WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE BAYS AND SOUNDS UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY, AND UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS, AND FOR THE 20-60 NM PORTION UNTIL NOON
MONDAY. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY. /29
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON MONDAY DROP TO 15-25%
MAINLY EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AND NORTH OF I-10. OTHER
CRITERIA REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE MET. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 25 48 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 30 50 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 31 50 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 22 50 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 21 46 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 20 45 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 23 50 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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