598
FXUS64 KMOB 160606
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FORE
SMALL CRAFT OVER AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OFF THROUGH MID WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
MEXICO, THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER, DEEPER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST
TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GETS PUSHED EAST OF
THE REGION, WITH A MOISTURE INCREASING FLOW OFF THE GULF SETTING UP
BEGINNING MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 0.15" AT
THIS TIME RISE TO AROUND 1.5" BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT ISENTROPIC
RAIN BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
RUMBLERS TO MIX IN. AT THIS POINT, GUIDANCE IS PAINTING THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER AREAS WEST OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE OR
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST, WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE TOPPING
OUT AROUND 1000J/KG. LIMITED BY RATHER MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER TROUGH. WIND SHEAR TOPS OUT BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS
THURSDAY, WITH 0-1KM HELICITIES TOPPING OUT AROUND 200M^2/S^2,
ALBEIT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE INGREDIENTS
ARE NOT QUITE LINING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA, LIMITING THE CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY
EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR, THOUGH. A POST SYSTEM COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A MAINLY DRIER
AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING INTO THE
COMING WEEK.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, THEN
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 30S RETURN TO
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LOCALITIES WELL
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN. LOW
TEMPERATURES THEN RISE INTO 50S FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEE THE SAME ROLLER COAST, WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED
TUESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEE A DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY, BUT
QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE SWELL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 44 63 54 71 / 0 20 30 70
PENSACOLA 48 66 59 70 / 0 10 30 60
DESTIN 50 66 58 69 / 0 10 20 60
EVERGREEN 36 66 48 71 / 0 10 20 60
WAYNESBORO 37 61 49 69 / 0 20 20 70
CAMDEN 34 61 46 68 / 0 10 10 70
CRESTVIEW 38 66 50 70 / 0 10 20 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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