083
FXUS64 KMOB 180605
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA BEACHES
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
- MODERATE TO STRONG MARINE WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT, PEAKING THURSDAY. INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS AN ISSUE,
REMAINING MODEST AT BEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH IS PRESENT
FOR RUMBLES TO MIX IN (MLCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 600J/KG). GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES 40-55KTS. 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF 150-200M^2/S^2 ARE ALSO
PRESENT. WITH INSTABILITY, MUCH LESS ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY,
LIMITED, AM EXPECTING THE POSSIBLITY OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF I-10.
ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH THEN
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS IN THE COMING WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY, WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, STALLING ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY PASSING. THE
SHIFT IN WINDS WILL BE SHORT, WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
MOST DAYS. THE EXCEPTION IN FRIDAY, WITH POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES
START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, WITH AROUND 40 TO NEAR 50 TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-10/UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 SOUTH TO THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, LOW TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE
SWELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH RIP RISK
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 23Z WILL DROP TO
LOW END MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT AS RAIN AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
MOVE OVER THE AREA. SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AFTER
18Z, BUT AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DROP IN CONDITIONS
TO LOW END MVFR/IFR AREA WIDE SOON AFTER 00Z. EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST, WITH A SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA POST FRONTAL.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SHIFTS TO EASTERLY BY MONDAY,
REMAINING A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG INTO MID WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 45 60 39 69 / 30 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 50 60 44 66 / 40 0 0 0
DESTIN 52 63 45 66 / 40 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 43 60 33 68 / 40 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 39 57 34 68 / 40 0 0 0
CAMDEN 39 55 33 65 / 50 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 46 62 33 66 / 40 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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