290
FXUS64 KMOB 191816
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM.
THIS RESULTS IN LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY SHORT LIVED COLD SNAP AS THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
ANOTHER FRONT TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT AN ATYPICALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY
AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TOP 1-2% OF THE CLIMATE
DATABASE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WITH HIGHS EASILY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. GIVEN HOW STRONG THIS RIDGE IS, HIGH TEMPS A BIT WARMER INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS POSSIBLE. COULD RECORD HIGHS BE IN
JEOPARDY? WE CAN'T RULE IT OUT, BUT THE 925MB/850MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE JUST A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE YEARS.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
CHRISTMAS DAY RECORD HIGHS:
MOBILE - 80 (2016)
PENSACOLA - 78 (2023/1974/1955)
34/JFB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT,
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. 34/JFB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT NOON. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT, THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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