896
FXUS64 KMOB 050042
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. DENSE MARINE FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN BY MIDWEEK.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
A VERY MILD WEEK IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. OUR MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG EACH
NIGHT. LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 20-40%
CHANCE OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING TO 30-50% OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY, OUR DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST
SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BY FRIDAY AND PROGRESS INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAST THIS OCCURS AS THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS,
MAINLY DUE TO QUESTIONS ON HOW STRONG A SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY IN PART
OF THIS TIME WINDOW WHEN THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF THERE WILL BE A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AT
ISSUANCE TIME, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS OVER COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AREAS, WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS DROPPING TO IFR OR LIFR.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANY FOG THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING,
BECOMING UPPER-END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND QUICKLY BECOME ONSHORE BY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MIDWEEK,
PARTICULARLY IN MOBILE BAY, AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
OVERSPREAD BAY AND SOUND WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S.
34/JFB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 49 69 54 75 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 53 68 58 72 / 0 0 10 10
DESTIN 54 65 58 70 / 0 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 45 68 51 75 / 0 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 44 68 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 44 67 50 74 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 46 69 52 74 / 0 0 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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