128
FXUS64 KMOB 051125
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. DENSE MARINE FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN BY MIDWEEK.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN US. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF, WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO
BECOME PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF. IN FACT,
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING, FORECASTED TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ROUGHLY 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. OUR MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT THROUGH, AT LEAST,
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S,
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW, AND RIDGING ALOFT. AND WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S, DENSE SEA FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ALONG LOCAL AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS
(PARTICULARLY AROUND MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND)
MAINTAINING LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AS
WELL.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS, HELPING TO SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS HAS BEEN LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK AND, ULTIMATELY, IF THERE IS A
RISK FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH.
THAT BEING SAID, CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SIGNAL AN
AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS LIKELY BECAUSE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE TROUGH, WHICH IS LEADING TO A STRONGER JET AND BETTER UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS IN ORDER TO IRON OUT
SPECIFICS. ONCE THE FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH, A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING A MODERATE RISK BY FRIDAY. /96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM VFR OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS TO LIFR OVER EASTERN EDGES. CONDITIONS WILL RISE
BEGINNING SOON AFTER SUNRISE. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER OVERNIGHT
COOLING, WITH DENSITY AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A MODERATE FLOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME A CONCERN EACH NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 69 55 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 67 58 73 62 / 0 10 10 10
DESTIN 67 59 71 62 / 0 10 10 10
EVERGREEN 69 52 76 58 / 0 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 68 52 76 58 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 68 52 75 57 / 0 0 10 10
CRESTVIEW 69 51 75 57 / 0 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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