261
FXUS64 KMOB 061721
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1121 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. DENSE MARINE FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN BY MIDWEEK.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH ITS
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF, WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS PERSISTENT FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
GULF. IN FACT, CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING, FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
FOR THE THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ROUGHLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. OUR MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT THROUGH, AT LEAST, THURSDAY NIGHT
DUE TO DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, THE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW, AND RIDGING ALOFT. THE FIRST OF POSSIBLY SEVERAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 AM FOR ALL LAND AREAS
FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WE WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS AS THESE HIGH DEW POINTS MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS (PARTICULARLY AROUND
MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND) MAINTAINING LOW VISIBILITIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AS WELL.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CONUS, HELPING TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH, WHICH IS LEADING TO A STRONGER JET
AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. MACHINE
LEARNING PROBABILITIES AND CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL STRETCHING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL, BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECASTED TROUGH EVOLUTION AND TIMING FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AS
WELL AS MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES AND ANALOGS, THE BEST
SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST (WITH LESSENING, BUT NON-ZERO, PROBABILITIES OVER
OUR AREA), SUGGESTING THAT THIS COULD BE MORE OF A 'GLANCING-BLOW'
SORT OF SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT AND ARE STILL OUTSIDE CAM GUIDANCE RANGE. THEREFORE WE
WILL STILL BE MONITORING TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ONCE THE FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH, A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY, BECOMING A MODERATE RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SETTLE IN LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHES OF
FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, MAY EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY OR LOWER AT TIMES. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME A CONCERN EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 75 59 75 / 0 10 0 10
PENSACOLA 62 74 61 74 / 10 10 10 20
DESTIN 63 72 61 72 / 10 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 57 78 56 77 / 0 10 0 10
WAYNESBORO 57 76 56 77 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 57 76 55 76 / 0 10 0 10
CRESTVIEW 58 77 56 77 / 10 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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