252
FXUS64 KMOB 070430
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1030 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BECOMES LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DENSE MARINE FOG WILL ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN BY
MIDWEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROF EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
LEADING SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND MOVES OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES WELL OFF TO THE NORTH LATER ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND DOWN TO NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE AND
OVER INTO EASTERN TEXAS, WHERE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE
FORMED. THIS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING OFF INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES, AND IN THE PROCESS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT LOOKS TO
PREDOMINATELY AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHER
POPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, THEN POPS TREND TO
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY. POPS TAPER
TO DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE 850 MB JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART REMAIN LIMITED ON FRIDAY, BUT HIGHER VALUES OF 500-750
J/KG MAY BE REALIZED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SIMILAR MLCAPE VALUES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH COULD EXTEND UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SHEAR SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THAT
POINT.
PRIOR TO THIS UPCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH
IT'S NOT CLEAR JUST YET IF THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SUFFICIENTLY
RELAX AND COULD END UP FAVORING LOW STRATUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPPER 70S), AND
RATHER MILD LOWS 20-28 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (50S TRENDING TO 60S).
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING, AFTER WHICH AN
IFR CEILING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA, POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO
VLIFR/LIFR IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY
MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT INCREASES TO 5-10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. DENSE MARINE
FOG DEVELOPMENT BECOMES LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, THEN
DIMINISHES ON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 76 59 76 / 0 10 0 10
PENSACOLA 63 74 62 74 / 10 10 10 20
DESTIN 63 71 63 72 / 10 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 58 77 57 77 / 0 10 0 10
WAYNESBORO 58 77 57 78 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN 58 77 57 77 / 10 10 0 10
CRESTVIEW 60 77 57 76 / 10 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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