405
FXUS64 KMOB 071803
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1203 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. DENSE MARINE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 70'S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50'S TO LOWER 60'S. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE REMAINS DENSE FOG. DENSE MARINE FOG PERSISTS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST CAUSING VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ACROSS DAUPHIN ISLAND
THROUGH FORT MORGAN. THIS SHOULD ERODE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DENSE FOG SETTLES BACK IN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SHOULD SOCK BACK IN TO DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. AREAS NEARER THE COAST MAY SEE THE DENSEST FOG AS SEA FOG
ADVECTS ONSHORE. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
INTERIOR AREAS, PERHAPS LINGERING NEARER THE COAST INTO LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW LONG SEA FOG WANTS TO HANG
AROUND.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARDS THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. FOG CONCERNS MAY STILL LINGER, ALTHOUGH
BECOME MORE LIMITED TO SEA FOG AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE QUITE A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY INCREASE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING MINIATURE SUPERCELLS AND
STORM CLUSTERS, THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS ON THE QUALITY OF FORCING
THAT WILL BE PRESENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY END UP BEING ONE
OF THOSE CASES WHERE THE BULK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ENDS UP
HAPPENING FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH REMAINS DISPLACED FROM US AND UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO HOLD
STRONG HERE. DESPITE THIS, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT ANY STORM THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH
BEST CHANCES LIKELY EXISTING ACROSS OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES. STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A
TORNADO OR TWO.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, BRINGING WITH IT
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ADEQUATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT, PARTICULARLY
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH SATURDAY WITH ANY STORMS AS LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES VEER OUT AND HODOGRAPHS BECOME INCREASINGLY STRAIGHT BUT
THE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50'S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO MIDDLE 30'S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE A WARMING TREND AS WE GET INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BECOMING A MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND A HIGH
RISK BY SATURDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL START TO DECREASE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TO A MODERATE RISK ON SUNDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS WINDS SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT, IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS VISBYS STEADILY DROP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AS
ADVECTION FOG MOVES IN. AFTER MIDNIGHT LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH DENSE FOG SPREADING INLAND AND LOW CEILINGS
ACCOMPANYING THE FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. VISBYS AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING LIKELY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. DENSE MARINE
FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BAYS, SOUNDS, AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES. A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, THEN DIMINISHES ON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 75 63 77 / 0 10 20 50
PENSACOLA 63 74 64 75 / 0 10 20 20
DESTIN 62 72 62 73 / 0 10 20 20
EVERGREEN 58 77 60 79 / 0 10 10 30
WAYNESBORO 58 78 62 77 / 0 10 40 70
CAMDEN 57 77 61 77 / 0 20 10 50
CRESTVIEW 58 77 58 78 / 0 10 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ALZ056>060-261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MSZ079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630-633>636-655.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ630-633>636-655.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ631-632-650.
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