283
FXUS64 KMOB 090555
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GOING INTO SATURDAY.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROF MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS
SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP
SURFACE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND
BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER
CONFLUENCE THEN OVER TO NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THE SLOWLY ADVANCING LARGE UPPER TROF, A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES, AND IN THE PROCESS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION SPREADING INTO ROUGHLY
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND PERSISTING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE
SHORTWAVES LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH, THE STRENGTH OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER COMPARED TO FRIDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA GENERALLY FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
CONSIDERING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PORTION AT THIS POINT AND CONTINUE TO
REASSESS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AFTER WHICH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TEND TO RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 30S NEAR THE COAST, AND
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER A BIT
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TEND TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE
COAST. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH, BUT DESPITE THE COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, AFTER WHICH A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WHILE ELSEWHERE IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. DENSE MARINE FOG IS LIKELY UNTIL MID THURSDAY
MORNING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BAYS. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
THEN DIMINISHES ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 64 76 64 74 / 20 70 70 100
PENSACOLA 65 74 67 74 / 0 20 40 90
DESTIN 62 72 65 72 / 0 10 30 80
EVERGREEN 61 78 64 76 / 0 40 60 100
WAYNESBORO 63 74 62 72 / 40 80 90 90
CAMDEN 62 76 62 72 / 10 70 80 100
CRESTVIEW 59 77 64 77 / 0 20 30 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ634>636-655.
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