362
FXUS64 KMOB 100413
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1013 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, WITH A MARGINAL RISK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT.
MESOANALYSIS UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY... WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. AN AMPLIFIED, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER WAYNE, CHOCTAW, AND CLARKE
COUNTIES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES, EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD, ALLOWING FOR SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT. SEVERAL
AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI (MAINLY OVER WAYNE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY) HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 5-7 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM PREVIOUS STORMS EARLIER TODAY. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THESE SATURATED AREAS, WE COULD SEE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN MATERIALIZE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, NOT TOO MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN
TODAY, AND THEREFORE OUR CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING RAINS IS MUCH LOWER.
OVER THE COMING HOURS, WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI (AND POINTS WEST) AS THE
TROUGH FINALLY BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z SOUNDING FROM LIX, THERE
IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. CURRENT HODOGRAPHS ARE
RATHER ELONGATED, WITH THE BULK OF THEIR CURVATURE OCCURRING IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS, GIVING WAY TO 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND 150-200
M2/S2. STORM RELATIVE INFLOW WINDS ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE (AROUND 25
KNOTS), AND WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS UP TO 700MB
FOLLOWED BY A WARM LAYER ABOVE 700MB, THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MINI, LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS (MINI SPINNIES). IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT CAMS ARE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SRH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE
PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SEVERE WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. FOR TONIGHT, THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA THROUGH, WITH LITTLE TO NO STORMS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. STORMS, ALONG WITH THE WIND/TORNADO THREAT
WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF I-65 BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH VERY LIMITED FORCING (HEIGHT FALLS
ONLY AROUND 20 METERS AT BEST), EXPECTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE
RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME. WE DRY OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WE FINALIZE OUR TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA
GETS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT, AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OUTLOOK AREA FROM SPC RESIDES, WITH A MARGINAL RISK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS SATURDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERAL THINGS HAVE
CHANGED WITH MODEL GUIDANCE THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOW EXPECTED TO START VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING OVER OUR FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
ZONES, WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL AROUND 3 AM SATURDAY. AFTER 3
AM, WE EXPECT THE FINAL PUSH OF TWO LINES OF CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE MODERATE MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO AROUND 800-1,000J/KG, SFC-3KM SRH VALUES AS HIGH AS
250 M2/S2, AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH AS 50KTS. IF THE RIGHT
SEQUENCE OF THESE FEATURES COME INTO PHASE, IT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FIRST LINE OF
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THAT COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. GIVEN THE RATHER
LOW RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OUTSIDE
OF LOCAL NUISANCE FLOODING SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH OUR
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH
THE COLDEST DAY (MONDAY) ONLY RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 30'S ALONG THE
COAST. THESE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPS THEN REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
BEACH FORECAST: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
GENERALLY STARTING OFF WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING, EXCEPT NEAR THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
COAST, INCLUDING KPNS WHERE CEILINGS ARE DOWN TO LIFR THRESHOLDS.
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO MVFR TO IFR THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
COAST, INCLUDING THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF I-65 EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE MARINE AREA
STARTING AT 9 PM SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE FOR ALL BAYS AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND AT NOON SUNDAY, AND FOR THE GULF WATERS AT 9 AM
MONDAY AS THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH. PATCHY DENSE MARINE
FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER ALL BAYS,
SOUNDS, AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 74 44 58 / 70 90 10 0
PENSACOLA 67 74 49 59 / 40 80 30 0
DESTIN 65 73 50 60 / 20 70 50 0
EVERGREEN 65 76 43 57 / 60 90 20 0
WAYNESBORO 63 71 41 55 / 90 90 10 0
CAMDEN 63 73 41 53 / 90 90 10 0
CRESTVIEW 65 77 46 60 / 30 80 40 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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